5.6M Tons and Counting – China‘s Steel Exports Hold Strong, But CNB Group Warns: Don’t Wait for the Summer Meltdown

The latest customs data is in, and the numbers tell a compelling story. In May 2026, China exported 8.356 million tons of steel, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the highest monthly export volume since October 2016. January through May cumulative exports reached 36.369 million tons, up 40.9% year-over-year.

But here is what the numbers don’t show: the market is at a tipping point.

The domestic picture is weakening. Steel prices have entered seasonal weakness. As of June 5, 2026, the average price of 20mm Grade III seismic rebar across major cities stood at 3,409 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB week‑over‑week, while the market expects steel prices to maintain weak fluctuations throughout June. The June steel market sales price expectation index fell below 50%, indicating deteriorating market sentiment. High temperatures and the rainy season are suppressing construction steel demand, while industrial steel faces pressure from both internal and external markets.

The export window is narrowing. Global protectionism is accelerating. The EU will double its steel over‑quota tariff to 50% and slash duty‑free quotas by 47% starting July 1, 2026. The EU’s CBAM carbon tariff has also entered formal implementation, potentially adding €60–100 per ton of steel.

CNB Group has strategic stockpiles ready at current pricing across PPGI, GI, GL, and aluminized steel. Our weekly shipment capacity remains stable, but lead times will tighten as the summer logistics season approaches.

📩 Request our latest stock list and secure your Q3 supply now – before prices adjust and before tariffs reshape the trade map.