📊 OECD Warns: Global Steel Overcapacity to Hit 745 Million Tons by 2028 – Your Supply Chain Faces a New Threat

While tariffs grab headlines, a bigger storm is brewing beneath the surface. The OECD‘s latest Steel Outlook 2026 report paints a sobering picture: global steel excess capacity is projected to reach 745 million tons by 2028 – 319 million tons more than the combined steel output of all OECD member countries. Planned new steelmaking capacity worldwide will reach approximately 139 million tons by then, a 5.7% increase from 2025 levels.

Meanwhile, demand is barely growing. Global steel demand is expected to grow at just 0.9% per year. This massive supply-demand imbalance means one thing: steel prices will remain under pressure, and trade barriers will keep multiplying.

China’s steel exports hit a record high of 131 million tons in 2025 – up 153% from 2020, surpassing the EU‘s entire annual steel production. According to the Japan Iron and Steel Federation, global anti-dumping investigations against Chinese steel hit a record 30 cases in 2024, with 23 cases in 2025. And the pace is accelerating in 2026.

The “circuitous trade” problem is growing. Chinese hot-rolled原料 is shipped to Southeast Asia for processing, then re-exported as finished steel to OECD markets – circumventing anti-dumping and countervailing duties. Japan has already established an anti-circumvention system (April 2026) to rapidly apply anti-dumping duties to goods routed through third countries. The EU‘s new “Melt and Pour” origin rule serves the same purpose.

Smart buyers are securing supply chains now – before the next trade barrier closes another market.

📩 Contact CNB Group today. Let’s talk about securing your steel supply for 2027 and beyond.